Syria is key

Since the strike on Iran’s Fordo Nuclear plant rendered extensive damage and set-back of Iran’s march toward the nuclear bomb, Syria is strategically the next key component in hindering the war on Israel.  It makes sense that the focus is there at the moment.  From all reports, there seems to be a general expectation that Assad will fall any day now.   The article below sheds some light on Israel’s position.

Iran could build nuclear bomb in 4-6 months, expert says

Still, there’s time for military or diplomatic action, says former head of military intelligence, and an Israeli attack wouldn’t mean regional war

Iran has what it needs to to build a nuclear bomb in a matter of four to six months, Amos Yadlin, the head of the Institute for National Security Studies, said Monday.

“Iran has completed in the last two years two components that… give it all of the necessary means to manufacture a nuclear weapons as soon as it chooses to do so,” Yadlin, a former Israeli army intelligence chief, told journalists at a presentation of the INSS annual report on Israel’s strategic status.

Yadlin noted, however, that despite the narrow window of opportunity to thwart Iran before it breaks out toward a weaponized nuclear capability, there was still time for diplomatic and/or military action.

An Israeli attack on Tehran’s nuclear facilities, he assessed, would elicit an Iranian response, but not of a magnitude that would precipitate a regional war.

“It may be that they’ll decide to act in 2013, and then we’ll require Israeli and perhaps also American action,” he said. “If Iran is attacked, there’ll be a military conflagration in the Middle East. But our assessment is that the Middle East won’t be enveloped in all-out war and the Iranians will respond in a calculated, limited fashion.”

Turning to Syria, the former head of IDF intelligence said Israel’s strategic situation would improve after the fall of President Bashar Assad. “Removing Syria from the axis of radicalism, if Assad falls, will be an important strategic line for the State of Israel,” he said. A post-Assad Syria, “whatever form it takes,” will be preoccupied with rebuilding. “I don’t see Syria looking for war with Israel… The [Syrian] army will face inwards, not outwards.”

On the diplomatic front, Yadlin said the greatest challenge for Israel was to break its isolation. “The Europeans are at the stage where they are considering sanctions against Israel,” he warned.

He criticized the government for not doing more to advance negotiations with the Palestinians. Overall, though, Yadlin said, “2012 was more positive than negative for Israel.”

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